Bitcoin Will Hit $200,000 In 2026 Thanks To This New Federal Reserve Program, Arthur Hayes Says
Khyathi Dalal
Sun, December 21, 2025 at 11:31 PM EST
2 min read
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Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is consolidating below $90,000, but BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says the pause masks a powerful liquidity-driven move that could send the cryptocurrency to $200,000 in 2026.
What Happened: In his latest essay, "Love Language," Hayes argues the Federal Reserve's newly introduced "Reserve Management Purchases" (RMP) program is effectively a rebranded form of Quantitative Easing (QE).
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He says the change in terminology is designed to avoid alarming markets with overt references to money printing.
While the Fed has framed RMP as a technical operation involving short-term Treasury bills rather than long-dated bonds, Hayes contends the economic impact is the same.
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The central bank creates new money to purchase T-bills from money market funds, which then recycle that cash back into Treasury issuance or the repo market.
The end result, he argues, is continued government funding and increased liquidity in the financial system.
Hayes dismisses debates over whether RMP differs from QE, saying the key signal is balance-sheet expansion. In that environment, he believes hard assets such as Bitcoin and gold are the most effective hedges against currency debasement.
He also argues the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle has been replaced by a "permanent" cycle of debt monetization.
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Why It Matters: Hayes cautions that a sharp rally is unlikely immediately, as markets currently view RMP as less stimulative than traditional QE.
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Early 2026: Bitcoin may trade sideways between $80,000 and $100,000 as investors assess the policy shift.
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Breakout Phase: As RMP becomes recognized as ongoing money creation—and as other central banks are forced to ease to protect their currencies—liquidity could surge into risk assets.
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Price Target: Hayes expects Bitcoin to reclaim $124,000 before accelerating toward $200,000 in 2026.
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This article Bitcoin Will Hit $200,000 In 2026 Thanks To This New Federal Reserve Program, Arthur Hayes Says originally appeared on Benzinga.com
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