Miami gives Dems hopes for Florida midterm magic. But hurdles loom large

Miami gives Dems hopes for Florida midterm magic. But hurdles loom large

Kimberly Leonard

Wed, December 10, 2025 at 11:00 PM UTC

5 min read

MIAMI — After Democrat Eileen Higgins won the Miami mayor’s race on Tuesday, her campaign adviser sent a memo boasting the election created a “renewed sense of Democratic momentum across Florida and the country” — and predicted Democrats would be “supercharged with enthusiasm going into 2026.”

Democrats statewide and across the country exuberantly agreed, with the win in a race focused on affordability and government efficiency capping off a period of multiple wins for the party and raising hopes of a return to form in the once-vaunted swing state.

Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried told reporters Wednesday that the party would continue leaning into its “Pendulum Project” to organize year round in every county. She said it would be necessary to bring along independents and Republicans, just as Higgins did.

“We're putting in the work,” Fried said. “We're getting great candidates, and now it's time for us to continue building this momentum into 2026.”

But Democrats still have to contend with some serious headwinds in Florida. They’re heading into the midterms with a 1.4 million-voter registration disadvantage against Republicans. And the GOP in Florida has massively more cash than Democrats, raising $12.7 million during the first three quarters of this year compared to Democrats’ $1.5 million — not to mention severe morale and infighting issues that plagued the state party.

“This was a small win for Democrats … but they've turned this into big national news to keep their donors happy,” said Angie Wong, a Republican executive committee member in Miami.

Miami, unlike most of Florida, has a 23,000-person voter registration advantage in favor of Democrats when counting both active and inactive voters. While Trump won Miami-Dade County by 11 points in 2024, he lost the city to former Vice President Kamala Harris by 1 point. Its outgoing GOP mayor, Francis Suarez, started out his years in office shunning policies from Trump and DeSantis — though he’s come around since. Despite losing Miami, Republicans won a special election for the state Senate on Tuesday night and maintained a majority on the Miami city commission.

“Republicans are gaining strength, and trajectory on voter registration is not slowing,” said Evan Power, chair of the Republican Party of Florida. “The fact is, Democrats making a lot of noise about a Kamala City shows how little movement they have. The Democrat Party is still on the verge of extinction in Florida.”

Florida Democrats also faced cratering morale and infighting earlier this year, with the state Senate Democratic leader leaving the party and two state House members flipping to the GOP after the 2024 election. One Miami-based Democratic political organizer, who was granted anonymity to relay a candid assessment, said there was still 11 months until the next election with “infinite opportunities for leadership” to mess it up, including if they choose to “meddle in primaries” or “get bogged down in the whole progressive vs. establishment” fight.

Still, the Miami race gave Democrats a jolt of excitement as it became more nationalized, coming a week after the party overperformed in a House special election in Tennessee. The Democratic National Committee sent volunteers to help, and major Democrats — including rumored 2028 candidates for president — popped into the Magic City or endorsed Higgins over social media as her prospects for victory improved.

“People are underestimating Florida,” said Chris Korge, DNC finance chair and a South Florida resident, who acknowledged circumstances had been “difficult” until Democrats saw a slew of victories in November that he called “a huge swing in a record period of time.” He said the DNC would get involved in the race for governor and other down-ballot contests, given that 40 percent of the electoral college is expected to be concentrated in the South by 2032.

He predicted donor interest would pick up next year “because they're going to have the belief after the races in November — and this race in particular, which has captured national attention — they're going to have some real confidence in us being able to win.”

Miami wasn’t the only victory Democrats saw in Florida on Tuesday night. The party won a special election in a state House district in Palm Beach County. Though it was a safe Democratic seat, the party said turnout swung left since the 2024 election. A Democrat also was reelected in a runoff for a commission seat in Miami Beach. And though they lost a special election for a state Senate seat, they said they overperformed.

On Wednesday morning, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced it was adding the seat currently held by GOP Rep. Laurel Lee to its list of districts “in play,” making that four Florida seats on their radar. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which helps elect Democrats to state Legislatures, also announced it was adding Florida to its target map, calling it a “once-in-a-generation” political environment.

Yet Republicans in the Legislature also might make 2026 even more difficult for Democrats if they move forward with a mid-decade redistricting push. While the state House and Gov. Ron DeSantis disagree about when and how to move forward, a redraw to the maps could result in Florida gaining as many as five GOP seats.

Fried argued that any changes to the maps were “not legal” and accused Republicans of taking on the effort to try to continue winning despite voters’ concerns about high prices, increasing premiums for Obamacare plans, ICE deportations and other issues.

“Regardless of what those seats look like, I do believe that we're going to be able to hold on to our Democratic seats and flip a whole bunch more,” she said, describing herself as “not overly worried.”

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