Reaction to the US-India tariff deal
Reuters
Mon, February 2, 2026 at 9:28 PM EST
4 min read
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SINGAPORE, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Indian stocks and the rupee are set for strong gains on Tuesday after a trade deal that slashes U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50% in exchange for India halting Russian oil purchases and lowering trade barriers.
Here are some comments from investors and analysts:
RADHIKA RAO, SENIOR ECONOMIST, DBS, SINGAPORE:
"This breakthrough is unmistakably positive for the real economy/exports, sentiment as well as financial markets, while further details are awaited. Textiles, gems & jewellery, engineering goods, leather and chemicals are likely amongst the key gainers.
"An eventual unveiling of the bilateral trade agreement will provide more details on the beneficiary product lines and trade as well as investment commitments. Domestic markets are expected to witness a relief rally at open, after high tariffs had been one of the key drags on sentiment in the past quarter."
CHARU CHANANA, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, SAXO, SINGAPORE:
"This is constructive for Indian equities because it reduces trade policy uncertainty and improves visibility for export-linked earnings - exactly the kind of catalyst that can restart the narrative when global investors have been cautious. But there's a lot we still don't know. If the oil bill rises meaningfully, that can reintroduce inflation and currency sensitivity.
"The structural story remains strong and the latest budget’s infrastructure and AI push keeps the ‘catch-up’ theme alive. For foreign investors though, the next hurdle is the Indian rupee, which means the market may look less like a one-way beta trade and more like a dispersion market."
MARC VELAN, HEAD OF INVESTMENTS, LUCERNE ASSET MANAGEMENT, SINGAPORE:
"The trade deal removes a chunk of policy and tariff uncertainty that had been weighing on Indian assets, opening the door for a near-term bounce in the rupee and equities via sentiment and foreign flows, though sustainability will depend on how the deal is implemented rather than the headline itself."
TRIDEEP BHATTACHARYA, PRESIDENT & CIO, EQUITIES, EDELWEISS ASSET MANAGEMENT, MUMBAI:
"The reduction in tariffs from around 50% to ~18% has come in materially better than consensus expectations. When combined with the recently concluded India–EU trade agreement, this potentially represents one of the strongest external growth stimuli for the Indian economy in 2026."
LAKSHMAN VENKITARAMAN, ASSOCIATE PORTFOLIO MANAGER, WASTACH GLOBAL, SALT LAKE CITY:
"We believe the trade deal improves investor sentiment toward India. While the U.S. is India’s largest trading partner, exports to the U.S. account for less than 5% of India’s GDP. Nonetheless, U.S.-India trade frictions have weighed on foreign investor perception. This has been compounded by a global trade focused on AI, which has disproportionately benefited markets such as Taiwan and Korea.
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"In our view, the trade deal refocuses global investor attention on India and should help revive foreign investor interest in Indian equities. Importantly, domestic investors have remained committed to the India growth story, providing a strong base for renewed foreign inflows."
PRASHANT PARODA, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, ALLSPRING GLOBAL:
"We believe this trade deal announcement should lift a key overhang on Indian equities. The U.S. is India's largest trading partner and this helps cement the relationship of the two largest democracies of the world.
"While actual details are awaited, we expect financials, renewables with exposure to the U.S. market and select textile companies to benefit. India has underperformed broader emerging markets index over the last year. Foreign investors who have been net sellers recently might also look to increase their weight to India in light of this announcement."
BEN LAIDLER, HEAD OF EQUITY STRATEGY, BRADESCO BBI, LONDON:
"It's a relief. India has sat out the EM rally last year and this year on concerns of being in the of trade war crosshairs of the U.S. So this is a double whammy benefit for India. You’ve announced trade deals or big trade liberalisations with your two biggest trade partners. It's going to take time for this all to be signed and sealed.
"It definitely removes one of the overhangs of the Indian market, something that had been maybe keeping investors shy of putting new money to work in India. Time will tell how positive. These things are a slow burn. They're going to take time to get signed."
LLOYD CHAN, SENIOR CURRENCY ANALYST, MUFG, SINGAPORE:
"A significant shift in U.S.-India trade policy has introduced a new geopolitical and macroeconomic dimension to Asia FX markets, arriving just as the Indian rupee is facing depreciation pressures.
"From a macro perspective, the INR’s recent weakness has been driven by tepid portfolio inflows and current account concern. The trade deal does offer medium-term positives for India through improved export competitiveness and reduced tariff uncertainty. However, the shift in energy procurement away from discounted Russian crude introduces challenges to import costs."
(Reporting by Jaspreet Kalra and Pranav Kashyap; Compiled by Ankur Banerjee; Editing by Edwina Gibbs and Raju Gopalakrishnan)
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